For Task Force 21 the recent Nuclear Triad Symposium would be their 14th, and although the message has always been one of “Sustaining Strategic Deterrence” the 2025 Symposium also addressed in depth “Modernizing the Nuclear Triad for a Changing World.”
Because Minot Air Force Base supports 2 legs of the Nuclear Triad, that being the Minuteman III Missiles and the B 52 bombers, modernization of the nuclear triad is almost a daily conversation at Minot AFB as the 91st Missile Wing looks forward to the new Sentinel Missile program and the 5th Bomb Wing is anxious to receive the B 52 H.
Both weapons systems are well past their anticipated life expectancy, yet they are the weapons system, teamed with the Navy’s Ohio Class submarines, that are leaned upon to be the nuclear deterrent for adversaries like Russia, China and more recently North Korea.
The symposium started with Vice Admiral Johnny Wolfe Jr., Director for Strategic Systems programs for the U.S. Navy, along with Lt. General Andrew J. Gebara, Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence Initiative and Nuclear Integration, U.S. Air Force, outlining and summarizing the importance of the Navy and the Air Force to work together to modernize the once dominant Nuclear Triad of the United State to compete with adversaries. “We must work together to collaborate and get modern weapons into our warfighters hands” according to Wolfe. The foundational triad needs to be modernized to stay ahead of Russian and China.”
Admiral Wolfe made another point clear, “If deterrence fails, I have every confidence that our warfighters will be ready.
Although their messages were similar, Lt. General opened his comments with a focus on the importance of deterrence “however the urgency for deterrence has certainly intensified. Global security is getting increasingly more complex. Now with Russia, China, North Korea, Iraq and more recently Pakistan, we must remain vigilant to a comprehensive deterrent,” and to accomplish that comprehensive deterrent Lt. Gen Gebara said it will take the continued support of Congress. “It’s important to continue to advocate for nuclear modernization” according to Gebara. “China has repeatedly talked about the invasion of Tawain in 2027. In order for China to wage war they must have, one: the capability and two: the will, and it seems that they have both.”
Much was said during AFA conference about the changing character of war, and the next speaker on the Nuclear Symposium Agenda, Dr. Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Senior Fellow and Director, Keyston Defense Initiative, The Hudson Institute told the audience that the United States may have to be prepared to deter and defeat 2 nuclear forces, each in a different theater.
“We are used to a U.S. led order, a U.S. system of alliances if you will that projects power abroad. It’s been a U.S. led deterrence.” And it is that deterrence that allows the United States to defend our core values. “We want to maintain our national sovereignty, and our strong alliances. Our adversaries want to break down those alliances, and in doing so they can threaten our homeland.
As a member of America’s Strategic Posture Commission, Dr. Heinrichs referred to the commission’s summary: The Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States was established by the Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and concludes that America’s defense strategy and strategic posture must change in order to properly defend its vital interests and improve strategic stability with China and Russia. Decisions need to be made now in order for the nation to be prepared to address the threats from these two nuclear-armed adversaries arising during the 2027-2035 timeframe. Moreover, these threats are such that the United States and its Allies and partners must be ready to deter and defeat both adversaries simultaneously.
“We must adapt nuclear forces for a new threat environment” according to Dr. Heinrichs “it must be not only deterrence, but assurance that if the United Stated needs the help of Allies, they will help. The U.S. strategy needs to be altered to increase nuclear weapons and forces. Even with the Golden Dome we know that our adversaries will try target the homeland and target the Americans with fear that will raise the threshold of a possible homeland attack, and we need prioritize what we think we need to defend first.”
On the other side we need to let our adversaries know that if they choose to target the homeland, it was a terrible mistake “and that they will become engaged in a war that would be absolutely awful” according to Heinrichs.
Looking ahead “we can see Russian and the Chinese collaborating to to supplant the U.S. order and create problems for the U.S.”
And according to Heinrichs we need to “consider what we don’t know. For example, Pakistan. Where are they in the world order, or where will they be? We absolutely need to cut through bureaucratic red tape to get Sentinel to go faster. Along with that we need to create a Nuclear Triad for Europe. We also need to make sure our Allies are on board and that they understand they need to play a larger role.”
And then there is the situation in Taiwan. “We either need to decide to defend Taiwan at all costs or decide that the cost to defend Taiwan is too high. If the Chinese think Taiwan is a battle they can win, then they will follow through. And in this battle there could be a case where nuclear weapons most likely will be used, and that is what we need to be prepared for.”
Next to the podium would be Maj General Michael Lutton, Deputy Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command. Sharing memories of the Midnight Hammer event, Gen Lutton shared “what was most memorable to me on that night was the professionalism up and down the force. You see a team fly 50 to 60% around the world and absolutely shock the Iranians. That is not embellishment. You are just unbelievably proud.”
Speaking to the Bomber Task Force Missions Gen Lutton pointed out “we have executed more Bomber Task Force missions in the last 12 months than in the last 20 years. Approximately 53 Bomber Taks Forces and almost 290 days on the road for the team. I believe it is over 45 countries that the bombers have integrated with. And then there’s the Minutemen III force. It is deterrence. The unflinching force of the 20th Air Force that is there deterring any potential adversaries and give the joint force freedom to maneuver to conduct global strike operations anywhere around the world. That force is critical to Global Strike and critical to national security.”
Gen Lutton continued that “we will win or lose in the transition, but this is going to work, this is the mindset that you need to have. You need to get into the mindset that this is going to work, and we are going to modernize. We have to get this modernization done. If you are late in deterrent, there is a greater chance that deterrent is going to fail.”
As far as the manpower behind the force. “We owe the team behind us the Airmen that are going to replace us. We have to give them modern weapons systems that we know will deliver national security.
And as far as the B 21? “It cannot get here fast enough. Still, we have to maintain our B-1 and B-2 and modernize our B 52’s.”
The overriding theme of this year’s Task Force 21 Nuclear Symposium is the need to stay on point and work hard to modernize all 3 legs of the Nuclear Triad. Several times the Triad was referred to as the backbone of the U.S. national defense.
All of the seminars of the Nuclear Triad Symposium were recorded and for those interested, more information on how to find them online is forthcoming.
