North Dakota is no stranger to the unpredictable nature of its seasonal transitions. While many people look forward to the arrival of warm air and sunshine, this region often experiences a phenomenon known as “false spring.” This term refers to a brief period of warmer-than-usual temperatures in late February to early April followed by a return to more frigid conditions. According to WeatherAPI.com and Forecast. Weather. Gov, over the past three years Minot has experienced several instances of false spring, each shaped by varying climatic events that bring brief relief from the harsh winter only to be quickly followed by a return to snow and freezing temperatures. Is this what MAFB is currently experiencing? What can history tell us about the likelihood of this recurrence.
Let’s go back to the year 2022. In late January, temperatures surged to unexpectedly warm levels, with highs reaching 40°F. These warmer temperatures led to significant snowmelt, offering the hope that winter was coming to an end. Unfortunately, this break was short-lived. Just as quickly as the warmth arrived, a cold snap came back with a vengeance. By February, temperatures plummeted to a chilling low of -2°F, reinforcing the unpredictable nature of Minot’s late-winter weather. The sharp contrast between the temporary warmth and the subsequent cold was a perfect example of a false spring, where the promise of an early spring is dashed by the return of wintery conditions. This was further demonstrated by the Minot Easter Blizzard of 2022. The week before Easter, April 12-14th, 2022, Minot was hit by a heavy snowstorm, dumping over 10 inches of snow in some areas. The blizzard brought a return of harsh winter conditions, dramatically highlighting how unpredictable Minot’s spring can be. For many, that Easter Blizzard was a stark reminder that in North Dakota, the calendar date often bears little resemblance to the actual weather.
Staff Sergeant Select Derius Thompson from the 69 Bomber Generation Squadron explained his version of False Spring as “Winter Junior”, which is a less intense version of the peak of winter. “False Spring is just North Dakota being excited about Winter Jr’s visitation.”
Minot’s winter of 2023 began with typical cold, averaging 25°F in March. Brief warm spells led to rapid snowmelt and early hopes for spring, but like in 2022, temperatures soon dropped, showcasing the false spring phenomenon. This pattern highlighted Minot’s unpredictable weather, with frequent shifts in temperature reminding residents that spring wasn’t here to stay.
Looking back to last year and the winter of 2024, Minot residents were likely hoping for a more consistent spring. March started with temperatures averaging a promising 36°F, which was slightly milder than the previous year. Later in the month, a significant warm period pushed temperatures well above freezing, leading to even more noticeable snowmelt, with a high temperature of 56°F. Was spring actually on the way? However, as with the years before it, this warmer phase didn’t last long. With a significant 20° drop in temperature, a return to colder conditions followed shortly after, reinforcing the ongoing cycle of false spring, solidifying the idea that, in North Dakota, spring is never guaranteed.
Minot’s experiences with false spring over the past three years highlights the region’s volatile weather patterns. While spring may seem just around the corner during these fleeting warm spells, residents are reminded that in North Dakota the transition from winter to spring is rarely smooth. As Minot moves through another likely false spring, don’t put away those parkas and wool gloves just yet. These temperature fluctuations can be expected to continue, but make sure to get out and enjoy the warm weather… while it lasts!
